I am a disciplined and hardworking person with a good and practical academic background. I have learned to succeed from numerous life experiences. I am social, easy to get along with and fast in adjusting to various environments and community demands. I have developed managerial, GIS & ICT Support, Project Management, and Teaching Skills over the years which I am willing and ready to apply so as to meet the organization’s goals and objectives.
Project Summary
Developing a Spatial Risk Assessment Model for the proposed East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP)
A well thought out risk assessment process enables asset owners and stakeholders to carry out effective and efficient risk management by providing specific actions that can reduce the likelihood of risk. The intention is to minimize risk to the lowest practical level such that no unacceptable risks can be realized. Whereas an impact assessment was carried out for the proposed East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), it doesn’t exhaustively point out all the potential risks associated with the pipeline. This study thus, focused on developing a spatial risk assessment model for enhancing the security and safety of the pipeline through identifying and incorporating other potential risk factors like terrorist attacks, political violence, social unrest, theft, floods and earthquake. The study also identified the following as vulnerable elements that are likely to be impacted by the pipeline: Populated areas, major infrastructure, Vegetation, Surface Water and Fauna.
The study used Cova’s proposed approach of 1999 to model Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk. Risk was modeled as a combination of Hazard and Vulnerability (Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability) to generate the Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk maps as primary outputs of the study.
The results of the study indicate that the section of the pipeline that traverses through Uganda is at high risk (5) of terrorist attacks and political violence than in Tanzania (3) due to power struggles and political instabilities in the region. The section of the pipeline that traverses through Ugandan districts of Hoima, Kikuube, Kyankwanzi and Kakumiro is at high risk (4) of earthquake due to major faults associated with the East African Rift System, and the part that traverses through Tanzanian districts of Kiteto, Kilindi, Kologwe and Tanga is prone to floods (4) due to the low underlying elevation. Furthermore, the western and central regions of Tanzania are prone to theft (4) and vandalism due to the thick vegetation in form of forests and swamps that exist in the area.
The study presents the potential damage that may be realized along the pipeline as follows: approximately 9,149 people in 26 towns, 96 sections of highway and major roads in close proximity to the pipeline, up to 265,504 hectares of forest cover and grassland could be at risk in the event of a fatality.
The study proposes the following mitigation measures in order to avoid or reduce on the likelihood of risk events: establishment of police posts in areas of high risk, pipeline insurance, use of ground patrols and UAVs to regularly monitor the pipeline.
In conclusion, the results of the study concur with the ESIA report however; there are other potential risk factors such as fire outbreak, landslides, spillage, corrosion, volcanoes, and cyber intrusion among others that also need to be mitigated.
Research Supervisors
Dr. Ing. David N. Siriba
